Counting down to Russia’s 2016 Duma Elections

by Janek Lasocki

As Russia gears up for a parliamentary elections this autumn, how can the country's embattled opposition and civil society offer a real contest to the Kremlin's "imitation democracy"?

Five years after the turbulence that rocked the 2011 contest, Russia is gearing up to hold parliamentary elections on 18 September. It would be hard to claim that this election will be fair, that the result will have any effect on the make-up or policy direction of the government, or, indeed, that the chamber has any autonomous impact of its own. And yet it still deserves attention.

Many Russians are treating the process seriously. A majority will probably cast their vote. With all its significant flaws, the election will still be an important test of Putin's popular support amid considerable economic uncertainty.

It is also an opportunity for Russia’s opposition to mobilise its electorate and show that a credible alternative is possible. So how is it expected to play out in 2016?

The enduring dominance of “United Russia”

In the Russian imitation of democracy, the intention has been to convince people that they have a vote and even different parties to vote for, but that the majority should actually want to vote in favour of the government.

In the Duma that means United Russia, the clearly dominant party associated with Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, and the so-called “system” opposition parties: the Communist Party, the so-called Liberal Democrat party and Just Russia. The Kremlin's goal this year is to use the many tools at its disposal to maintain this status quo.

In an attempt to whip up enthusiasm around the party, United Russia are for a third time running open primaries. Here, any citizen is allowed to vote on who should be the party’s federal and local candidates (although many slots are already pre-reserved). The whole process, including debates between local candidates, is receiving wall-to-wall coverage on federal and regional TV channels. Local party officials are under pressure to ensure the participation of 10% of all registered voters. Putin himself has gotten actively involved, visiting party HQ to meet candidates and confirming attendance at the party congress when lists are announced.

Thus, among the over three thousand registered candidates, there are cosmonauts, sportsmen and TV personalities, but also a significant number of non-party members. This gives the perception of openness. But, in reality, a side-effect of this inclusiveness is that many with little interest in the party (and knowing they cannot win) are using the process to build their own profile so they can represent other parties or contest other elections in the future.

“Political technology” will also be used more than ever in the ruling party's favour. Fake “spoiler” parties will appear on ballots to confuse voters. The Communist Party, for example, popular especially (but not exclusively) with older generations, will have to face parties including the Communist Party of Social Justice and the Communists of Russia. Single mandate districts are being brought back so half of the 450 seats will be won by individuals in each region.

Last autumn saw massive redrawing of electoral boundaries. As a result, urban and rural districts were mixed (favouring United Russia with their monopoly on government resources) and districts where United Russia came second in 2011 were broken apart. Regardless of the final vote percentages county wide, likely domination of the single mandate MPs should ensure United Russia their majority. ...

The full article — OpenDemocracy